Legislative Corner - Primary Election Recap
Tennessee voters went to the polls August 1st, 2024, for the state’s August primary elections, which included races for all state and federal House seats, half of state Senate seats, and one U.S. Senate seat. With so many districts now being either solidly Republican or Democrat, in most cases much of the drama and intrigue is played out in the August primaries, thus often rendering November’s general election as being a bit anticlimactic, outside of a few races.
While there were few surprises at the federal level, as all incumbents won easily—including freshman U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN5), who received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump and cruised to a ten-point win over well-funded challenger Courtney Johnston—the state legislative races were very different. Several notable and influential incumbents saw their time in Nashville come to an end, some in surprising outcomes.
Harshbarger Rides Trump Endorsement to Upset Win Over Education Chairman Lundberg; Haile, Massey Roll to Resounding Victories; School-Choice Ads Fuel Niceley Defeat
The Senate experienced several upsets, the most significant being Bobby Harshbarger's 52-48 victory over Education Chairman Jon Lundberg (R-Bristol). Lundberg, who has served in the legislature since 2006 on both the House and Senate sides, faced his first contested race since 2016. Harshbarger, the son of United States Representative Diana Harshbarger (R-Kingsport) and endorsed by former President Donald Trump, announced his decision to run on April 4th, just one day before the qualifying deadline, and quickly began his campaign. The race was contentious from start to finish, with allegations ranging from ethics violations to stolen yard signs, and outside groups pouring a significant amount of money into the two campaigns. Governor Bill Lee strongly supported Lundberg, who sponsored the Senate version of the Governor’s education voucher bill, a fact Trump noted in more than one social media post regarding the success of his endorsed candidates in Tennessee. For all intents and purposes, this win guarantees Harshbarger a seat, as there is no Democrat running in November.
Lundberg wasn’t the only longtime Senator to suffer a primary defeat however, as Senator Frank Niceley (R-Strawberry Plains) was outpaced by his opponent, Jessie Seal. Niceley has represented the district since 2012 and previously served in the state House of Representatives. In a similar vein to other candidates, Niceley was targeted by the School Freedom Fund’s negative ad blitz, which aimed to attack members for opposing publicly funded school voucher programs. Seal will go on to face the democratic candidate R. E. Ellison in the general election. Ellison is a retired computer science professional, who ran unopposed in the democratic primary. She faces long odds against Seal in a strongly Republican district.
It wasn’t all bad news for incumbents in Senate primaries however, two incumbents prevailed in their tight races. Sen. Ferrell Haile (R-Gallatin) and Sen. Becky Massey (R-Knoxville) both secured significant wins over opponents that were once regarded as quite formidable. Senate Speaker Pro Tempore Haile defeated his primary opponent, Chris Spencer, in a heated race by 18 points. Spencer put up a good fight from endorsements to campaigning, but ultimately it wasn’t enough to pull past the incumbent Haile. Massey, the Chair of the Senate Transportation Committee, prevailed against Monica Irvine for Senate District 6. Massey hails from a deeply respected political family in the Knoxville area – indeed, both her father and her brother served lengthy terms in Congress – but had not faced a contested race since her initial election in a special election to represent District 6 in 2011. She will now compete against Democrat Dominica Bryan in the general election. Bryan, who ran unopposed in her primary, has strong support from Democrats, but again faces long odds against Massey in a traditionally strong Republican district in Knoxville.
State House Recap: Finance Committee Chair Hazlewood Edged by 137 Votes; Scarbrough Upsets Ragan
In an outcome that surprised many political observers, Rep. Patsy Hazlewood (R-Signal Mountain) narrowly lost to her primary opponent, Michele Reneau, by 137 votes in a race that seemed to go back-and-forth all night. Hazlewood has served in the legislature since 2014 and for the past two terms has served in one of the House’s most influential Chairs, heading the House Finance, Ways, and Means Committee. She also had accumulated a sizeable campaign war chest. Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to overcome Reneau, a real estate agent and conservative activist, who emphasized her conservative values and views on immigration as key points in her campaign. Michele Reneau will now face Democratic candidate Kathy Lennon in the general election this November.
Hazlewood’s upset wasn’t the only one to take place in east Tennessee as another longtime incumbent, Rep. John Ragan (R-Oak Ridge) lost to Rick Scarbrough, a former police chief in Clinton, TN. Election results show that Scarbrough bested the incumbent by 258 votes. Ragan who for the last several years has served as chairman of the House Government Operations committee, has represented Anderson County since 2011. Scarbrough will now face Democrat Anne Backus in the general election in November.
Looking Ahead to November
Candidates will now turn their attention to the November general elections. However, with few “purple“ districts in Tennessee at either the state or federal levels, many of the general races in November tend to be one sided affairs.
Republicans and Democrats alike will focus their attention on a few races in relatively close legislative districts where either party can pick up an extra seat or two, but the overall composition of power does not look to change in any meaningful way, as the GOP will maintain its stronghold on Tennessee’s congressional seats, and in the Tennessee legislature. That is especially the case with a presidential race on the ballot, and what is likely to be a strong turnout. Former President Trump remains very popular among Tennessee voters and Tennessee’s status as a “solid red“ state will undoubtedly continue. That dynamic should also buoy the hopes of legislative candidates in close districts.
In the U.S. Senate, incumbent Marsha Blackburn (R) faces a challenge from Democratic State Representative Gloria Johnson of Knoxville but given that there is a presidential race on the ballot and given Blackburn’s popularity and her close alliance with Donald Trump, Blackburn should win comfortably.
With popular Governor Bill Lee heading into the third year of his second term in January, look for the governor to double down on his educational freedom platform and specifically providing vouchers to allow parents to decide where they want their children to attend school. Lee advanced school choice legislation back in January this year, but ultimately the House and Senate could not come to terms on which version they preferred. The Governor has dedicated a significant amount of campaign time this summer on the issue, stumping for candidates that support his policy, and school choice groups also weighed heavily in several elections, waging expensive media campaigns both for and against various candidates.
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